Geopolitical Risks Keep Bitcoin in Check

Escalating Israel-Iran tensions and institutional buying influence Bitcoin's price movements.

Author
Branden Chen
Senior Crypto AnalystJune 16, 2025
Bitcoin trading chart with upward trend

Bitcoin Stuck Around $105K Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Market sentiment remains fragile as geopolitical risks surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict keep Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around the $105,000 mark. According to QCP, market participants are closely monitoring the situation, leading to increased hedging against potential downside risks.

Risk Reversals Indicate Investor Anxiety

QCP notes a decisive shift in risk reversals, with front-end BTC puts commanding premiums over equivalent calls. This indicates heightened investor anxiety and a preference for downside protection.

Despite this defensive positioning, Bitcoin has shown resilience. On-chain data suggests continued institutional buying is providing meaningful support, even after substantial long positions were liquidated during recent volatility.

Long-Term Perspective Remains Positive

Glassnode data offers reassurance to long-term investors. Bitcoin's current cycle gain of 656%, while lower than previous bull markets, is still impressive considering its significantly larger market capitalization.

OP_Return Debate Overblown, Says Galaxy Research

Galaxy Research argues that the recent OP_Return debate was less significant than portrayed by critics. Analyst Alex Thorn dismissed accusations of the "death of Bitcoin" as hyperbole, citing historically low mempool congestion.

Thorn suggests focusing on potential upgrades like CheckTemplateVerify (CTV), which could enhance custody methods.

ByBit Launches Solana-Native DEX, Byreal

Bybit is expanding into the decentralized exchange (DEX) space with Byreal, a platform built on Solana. The testnet is slated for launch on June 30, with the mainnet rollout expected later this year. Byreal aims to combine centralized exchange features with DeFi transparency.

Market Movements:

  • BTC: Held near $105,000 after liquidations due to Israel-Iran tensions.
  • ETH: Rose 2% to around $2,550, finding support at $2,510.
  • Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose, led by Japan.
  • Gold: Climbed to $3,447 on safe-haven demand.

Key Takeaways:

  • Geopolitical risks are weighing on Bitcoin's price.
  • Institutional buying provides support.
  • Long-term outlook remains positive.
  • ByBit launches Solana-native DEX.

Investment Considerations

As always, investors should consider their risk tolerance and investment timeline before making allocation decisions. Bitcoin remains a volatile asset despite increasing institutional adoption.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor.

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