3 min read

Oil Spikes Trigger Crypto Rethink: Is Bitcoin Still a Safe Haven?

Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are challenging traditional safe-haven assets, prompting investors to reconsider Bitcoin's role in a volatile market.

Branden Chen

Senior Crypto Analyst•June 15, 2025

Oil's Surge and Crypto's Crossroads

The recent surge in oil prices, fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, has sent ripples through global markets, prompting a reassessment of traditional investment strategies. Brent crude oil jumped over 10%, reaching levels not seen since January, closing at $75.18 a barrel on June 13, 2025.

Crypto's Reaction: A Mixed Bag

While oil soared, Bitcoin initially dipped by as much as 5% before partially recovering. The cryptocurrency market reacted with a mix of uncertainty and speculation, sparking intense discussions on Crypto Twitter about the correlation, or lack thereof, between oil and crypto.

An interesting observation by X user @R1chrdHeartLose pointed to a potential correlation between the ETH/BTC chart and oil prices during 2021-2025. However, current market dynamics suggest a divergence from this historical trend.

Historical Context

The Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022 saw oil prices climb to nearly $120 a barrel, before sliding down from mid-2023. Early 2025 saw a crash to nearly $60 a barrel before rebounding due to the conflict. Crypto saw it's peak around 2021. Bitcoin hit $60,000 at this point.

The listing of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought some relief, pushing Bitcoin to around $70,000. The subsequent Trump election victory in November saw Bitcoin reach a new record high of $111,970.17 on May 22, 2025, based on his pro-crypto policies.

Safe Haven Status in Question

The current climate reveals a shift in investor sentiment. Rising oil prices are now perceived as a safe haven, a role Bitcoin once aspired to fulfill. Is this a temporary anomaly or a sign of a more fundamental shift in the market's perception of crypto?

Key Takeaways:

Geopolitical instability is driving oil prices upwards.
Bitcoin's safe-haven status is being challenged.
Market correlations are constantly evolving.
Traders are looking at oil as a safe haven asset, crypto no more so.

U.S. Market Close:

S&P 500: 5,976.97 (-1.13%)
Dow 30: 42,197.79 (-1.79%)
Nasdaq: 19,406.83 (-1.30%)

Investment Considerations

As always, investors should consider their risk tolerance and investment timeline before making allocation decisions. Bitcoin remains a volatile asset despite increasing institutional adoption.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor.