Will Trump Pardon CZ? Prediction Markets Weigh In

The possibility of presidential pardons for individuals in the crypto space is generating buzz, with Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the founder of Binance, currently perceived as the most likely recipient according to prediction market Polymarket.

CZ: The Top Contender

Polymarket traders are giving CZ a 30% chance of receiving a pardon from Trump. Zhao, who pleaded guilty to money laundering and stepped down as Binance CEO, was sentenced to four months in prison in April 2024. Speculation intensified after reports of discussions between the Trump family and Binance representatives, although CZ has denied any formal pardon-for-stake deal.

Other Crypto Figures in the Mix

While CZ leads the pack, other prominent figures are also in the running, albeit with lower probabilities:

• Roger Ver ("Bitcoin Jesus"): 15% chance. Accused of evading $48 million in taxes.
• Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF): 9% chance. The disgraced founder of FTX.
• Do Kwon: 5% chance. The founder of Terraform Labs, faces potential fraud charges and a lengthy prison sentence.

Precedent and Speculation

Trump's past pardon of Ross Ulbricht, the creator of Silk Road, has fueled speculation about further clemency decisions in the crypto sector. The odds, according to traders are that more people might get a pardon this term.

Key Takeaways

• CZ is currently the frontrunner for a potential Trump pardon, according to Polymarket traders.
• Other crypto figures, including Roger Ver, SBF, and Do Kwon, are also being considered, but with significantly lower odds.
• Past pardons have created precedence for further pardon considerations for those associated with the crypto space.